How many set numbers are left?

[Macruran]

  All numbers and calculations are rough and likely wrong

Sets are numbered with four digits. That means the range is 0000-9999, in other words exactly ten thousand set numbers are available.

Some time ago I counted sets on Collectobil and estimated there were about 3000 different sets ever produced. 10000 - 3000 = there are about 7000 set numbers left.

3000/40 years = roughly 75 sets produced a year. This number is of course wildly inaccurate as more sets per year are produced now than three decades ago. So let's assume 100 unique new sets appear each year.

7000/100 = 70 years from now the Gnomes of Zirndorf will need to come up with a new numbering system.

[Birdie]

That reminds me, I once wrote a letter to Playmobil as a kid to ask if they once started with set number 1 and if they were moving up. I got a reply and everything

If Playmobil is still going strong in 70 years time, my great-grandchildren will have a pretty awesome collection of old stuff to sell 

[Macruran]

That reminds me, I once wrote a letter to Playmobil as a kid to ask if they once started with set number 1 and if they were moving up. I got a reply and everything

WHAT DID IT SAY

[sbblabotw]

I've got some better numbers, Macruran. Accuracy not 100% but pretty good.

PlaymoDB has 4328 sets in the DB. That's only sets with 4-digit numbers - I don't use the old Schaper three-digit numbers, or the ten-digit ones assigned to new "gift" sets like the PCC produces. 238 of the four-digit numbers are used twice or more. So that's 4090, out of 8999 possible.

In the DB...
1000's: 14
2000's: 1
3000's: 964
4000's: 977
5000's: 835
6000's: 497
7000's: 784
8000's: 0
9000's: 21

Before you check my work, that only adds to 4079, but I don't know where the other 11 went! Some kind of weirdness with the doubled numbers I expect. Anyway...

The 7000's were used for DS sets for many years, and 6000's for 1-2-3 sets; that's not true anymore, so new sets of all kinds are almost always 5000's and 6000's. The Specials still get 4000's till they're all gone, I suppose. The 5000's won't be long getting used up, either, 2-3 year I'd wager.

There have been over 100 sets a year since 1996 with only a couple of exceptions slightly lower; over 175 sets a year since 2005. 2012 and 2014 were high points at 241 and 219 sets, respectively... and of course 2015, already at 182, is not done yet.

[GrahamB]

There are a further 74 sets which aren't in the DB but are listed as 'Exclusives' in the Collector third edition. Only 7 of these have unique numbers, however (i.e. not repeats of numbers used for other sets).

[Macruran]

Thank you for this expert information. It paints a much darker picture. To wit:

• Only 9000 set numbers available, not 10000
• Over 4000 set numbers already used
• At least 200 sets probably being produced each year from now on

Crunching all those numbers gives us

AT BEST 25 YEARS BEFORE THE GNOMES HAVE TO SCRAMBLE

That's within many of our lifetimes.

This is worse than Y2K, or Mayan Apocalypse.



OT: GrahamB, did you receive the PM I sent you?

[Birdie]

WHAT DID IT SAY

I was a long time ago, but I remember they just explained that no, they didn't start with set number 0001. It had to do with series of sets, and the numbers corresponded to that. If it started with 4xxx, for example, it belonged to that certain series of products, so to speak. So (at least according to the person who wrote me the letter) there was no set 0001.

[cachalote]

maybe, when the numbers are out, playmobil will cease its production.
maybe that's the secret idea behind the creation of a foundation that will manage the company after horst brandstatter leaves.
maybe nobody will never know the name of its directors so that they can escape after the klicky-killing.

or maybe thy will just add 2 letters before the numbers, like a german car-plate.
PI for pirates.

[GrahamB]

There are a further 74 sets which aren't in the DB but are listed as 'Exclusives' in the Collector third edition. Only 7 of these have unique numbers, however (i.e. not repeats of numbers used for other sets).

Actually, the numbers are as follows:
65 sets not in DB, mostly listed as 'Exclusives' in Collector. 4 unique numbers: 4003, 4030, 4031 (all trains) and 3700 (Color set, farmers and a carriage). 6 sets have no details given in Collector.

[bonniebeth]

AT BEST 25 YEARS BEFORE THE GNOMES HAVE TO SCRAMBLE

That's within many of our lifetimes.

This is worse than Y2K, or Mayan Apocalypse.